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Overview

The IMF is fully committed to supporting our member countries, particularly the most vulnerable; we have the tools to help; and we are coordinating closely with our partner institutions.

Highlights

News & Publications

Hungary’s Corporate Sector Risk: A Machine Learning Approach
August 13, 2024

In recent years, Hungary’s non-financial corporations were confronted with multiple shocks, ranging from the pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions to the historic tightening of domestic monetary policy. Employing machine learning techniques, this paper examines the determinants of Hungarian listed firms’ credit risk evolution over this period. Our analysis shows that both firm-specific and macroeconomic factors played a role in explaining the observed rise in firms’ default probability at onset of the pandemic, although Hungarian corporates proved broadly resilient, with risk indicators quickly improving a year after. Firms’ credit risk rose again in 2022, however, as both long-term interest rates and sovereign risk premia sharply increased, despite continued improvements in firms’ financial ratios. This development merits continued monitoring, particularly since a significant portion of corporate loans are set to mature within the next few years and could be repriced at higher interest rates.

Key Trends In Implementing The Fund's Transparency Policy
July 29, 2024

At the time of the 2005 Review of the Fund’s Transparency Policy, the Executive Board requested regular updates on trends in implementing the transparency policy. This report provides an overview of recent developments, reflecting information on documents considered by the Board in 2022 and updating the previous annual report on Key Trends. Deeper analysis of these trends is undertaken in the context of periodic reviews of the Fund’s Transparency Policy.

United States: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United States
July 18, 2024

The U.S. economy has turned in a remarkable performance over the past few years. Hysteresis effects from the pandemic did not materialize and both activity and employment now exceed pre-pandemic expectations. Real incomes were diminished by the unexpected rise in inflation in 2022 but have now risen above prepandemic levels. Job growth has been particularly fast, with 16 million new jobs created since end-2020. However, income and wealth gains have been uneven across the income distribution and poverty remains high, particularly following the expiration of pandemic era support. The outlook is for a continued healthy rate of growth with balanced risks around the baseline forecast.

The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade
July 9, 2024

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.

Blogs

Housing Affordability Remains Stretched Amid Higher Interest Rate Environment
January 11, 2024

Prospective home buyers face high prices and elevated borrowing costs, while homeowners refrain from listing their properties

How Channeling SDRs is Supporting Vulnerable Economies
October 13, 2023

Special drawing rights are providing an important boost for countries that need one, but greater support is encouraged to strengthen our unique lending tools

Fragile States Need Customized Support to Strengthen Institutions
September 21, 2023

In the most vulnerable countries, strengthening state capacity must adapt to more frequent economic shocks, greater political instability, and fewer resources

Global Debt Is Returning to its Rising Trend
September 13, 2023

Although global debt recorded another significant decline in 2022, it is still high, with debt sustainability remaining a concern

Historic $650 Billion Liquidity Boost Continues to Benefit the Global Economy
August 29, 2023

The August 2021 allocation of special drawing rights supported countries amid recovery from the pandemic—and continues to offer benefits

How Financing Can Boost Low-Income Countries’ Resilience to Shocks
June 14, 2023

The economic gains from $272 billion in pandemic support for 94 countries were strongest in the poorest and more vulnerable recipients of IMF concessional financing

Multimedia

Podcast: Navigating a More Fragile World

With shock upon shock hitting the world economy in the last three years, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva's customary opening speech to the Annual Meetings warned of a darker global outlook and emphasized the need for the world to come together to deal with the consequences.