Tonga: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission
August 25, 2024
Taming Public Debt in Europe: Outlook, Challenges, and Policy Response
August 23, 2024
Public debt ratios in Europe increased significantly in response to the pandemic and energy shocks and have remained higher than before the pandemic in most countries. Going forward, the projected public debt trajectories are broadly flat overall in advanced Europe but have a rising profile in emerging Europe. Government financing needs are still elevated, and the unwinding of quantitative easing by major central banks adds to financing pressures. Moreover, there are important medium- to long-term spending pressures from defense, climate transition, and aging, which are not fully reflected in the projected baseline trajectories. Against this backdrop, the risk that debts will not stabilize in the medium term has increased. Debt stabilization will hinge critically on achieving ambitious fiscal consolidation and sustained growth. Facing these elevated risks, policymakers need to implement carefully-calibrated fiscal adjustments that ensure debt sustainability while supporting growth. They could target debt stabilization over a longer, 10-year, horizon—while adhering to credible fiscal rules such as the reformed EU Economic Governance Framework—but with a high probability to reassure markets that debts will indeed be tamed.
Advancing Labor Market Reforms in Korea
August 23, 2024
This paper examines structural challenges facing the Korean labor market and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of potential labor market reforms. Our cross-country empirical analysis finds that easing of employment protection legislation tends to have positive macroeconmic effects during periods of strong growth but could turn contractionary in periods of slack. By contrast, increased spending on active labor market policies and reductions to the labor tax wedge tend to be more effective in periods of slack. Our analysis thus highlights the importance of considering economic and policy conditions when designing labor market reforms. Under the current disinflationary policy stance, the government’s focus on the working hour reform seems appriorate. With growth recovering, deregulation to reduce employment protection for regular workers can also be considered, combined with targeted support to vulnerable groups.
Investing in Climate Adaptation under Trade and Financing Constraints: Balanced Strategies for Food Security
August 23, 2024
Financially constrained governments, particularly in emerging and developing economies, tend to face a fiscal trade-off between adapting to climate change impacts and pursuing broader development goals. This trade-off is especially relevant in the agriculture sector, where investing in adaptation is critical to ensure food security amidst climate change. International trade can help alleviate this challenge and reduce adaptation investment needs by offsetting agricultural production shortages. However, in the presence of trade fragmentation, the adaptive role of trade diminishes, exacerbating food insecurity and increasing investment needs for adaptation. In this paper, we present a model to guide policymakers in deciding on the cost-efficient balance between investing in adaptation in the agricultural sector versus in broader development under financing and trade constraints. We apply the model to Ghana, Egypt, and Brazil, to examine the adaptation-development trade-off and highlight factors that would potentially lower adaptation investment needs. These factors include trade openness, higher agricultural productivity and efficiency of adaptation spending, and reduced labor market distortions. The key takeaways from the model applications suggest that (i) promoting trade openness and accessing concessional finance for adaptation help tackle climate challenges and ensure food security in lower-income countries; and (ii) domestic structural reforms are necessary to facilitate adaptation investments and reduce investment needs, by improving labor market flexibility, adaptation efficiency, and agriculture productivity.
Sri Lanka: Technical Assistance Report-Property Taxation at the National and Subnational Level
August 23, 2024
This report analyzes Sri Lanka’s options for improving the fairness and progressivity of the tax system through the introduction of a nationwide property tax. Given constitutional constraints that limit the taxation of property at the central government level, it recommends taxing the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. With a suitable exemption threshold and a progressive tax rate structure, such a tax can support fiscal consolidation by raising revenue from the most affluent members of Sri Lanka’s society while introducing little distortions. Implementation and enforcement of the tax will require substantive investments in data infrastructure, including through the introduction of a digital sales price and rents register. The report also outlines options for improving the fairness and revenue productivity of subnational assessment rates (local property taxes) and suggests additional reforms that can complement the taxation of real property at the national and subnational level.
Sri Lanka: Technical Assistance Report-Repeal of Simplified Value Added Tax and the Transition to Risk-Based Value Added Tax Refund Processing
August 23, 2024
This report summarizes an expert visit on VAT refunds that provided Inland Revenue Department officials with examples of good international practice in VAT refund management and risk management.
Financial and Business Cycles: Shall We Dance?: An Application to Kazakhstan
August 23, 2024
This paper examines the role of financial cycle proxies in refining available estimates of the business cycle in Kazakhstan. It contributes to the existing literature by introducing a formal test for the stability of the mean of exogenous variables in the estimation set up, and by developing a self-contained statistical package to streamline the whole estimation process. The empirical strategy is designed to be parsimonious, aiming to avoid the pitfalls associated with overly complex models while achieving comparable results. Results have implications for the extent with which the authorities should manage the business and financial cycles, with which policies, for macroprudential policy calibration, and for the usefulness for policymaking of endsample estimates of the cycle.
IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Suriname on the Seventh Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility
August 22, 2024
Revenue Authorities and their Boards of Management: Recent Developments
August 22, 2024
This technical note provides detailed and updated information on the semi-autonomous Revenue Authority (RA) governance model for revenue administration, a model developed 40 years ago and used by some 35 administrations world-wide. The update is provided through a review of relevant legislation, questionnaire results, and outcomes of a series of seminars. The RA governance model has a unique governance structure that includes a Minister, a board of management, and a Chief Executive Officer - three partners. RAs are set up using specific enabling legislation. Clarity in the language used in the law is critical for establishing the exact roles of the three partners. The board of management is unique in that it usually has a more limited role (due in part to the confidentiality of individual taxpayer information) than a board of directors in a private sector corporation. Emerging issues with these boards are examined, and it is noted that some see the RA board role as becoming more closely aligned with private sector boards of directors. RAs were initially founded on the belief that more nimble HR practices and appropriate funding would result in more robust revenue administration. While it is difficult to establish direct causality between the adoption of the RA governance model and improved revenue administration, practitioners are convinced this is the case and that the HR and funding advantages need to be protected.
Economics Authors Confront Toughest Questions on Data, History, and Theory
August 21, 2024
New books offer fresh perspectives on climate, China, and John Maynard Keynes