Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

Connect with IMF Institute

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country’s economy. In the in-person course, country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Read More Topic : Monetary Exchange Rate and Capital Account Policies

Target Audience

Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.

Qualifications

Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course and the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

Course Objectives

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own national data when they return home.

Syllabus

This two-week course aims at providing participants a rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting with an emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools needed to develop and/or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.

Course Structure and Standard Syllabus

Upcoming Offering

Start date	End date	Location	Delivery Method	Session No.	Primary & (Interpretation) language	Apply
October 28, 2024	November 8, 2024	Vienna, Austria	Blended Training	JV 24.32	English	Deadline passed
March 3, 2025	March 14, 2025	Singapore, Singapore	Blended Training	ST 25.06	English	Apply online by November 25, 2024

FACTSHEETS

RESOURCES

TOPICS

Flagship Publications

Other Publications

IMF reports and publications by country

Regional Offices

All News

See Also

For Journalists

Press Center

RESOURCES

FLAGSHIPS

KEY SERIES

IMF NOTES

Training Catalog Course Details