IMF RESEARCHER

Irineu de Carvalho Filho is a Senior Economist in the Open Economy Macro Issues Division of the Research Department (RES) of the International Monetary Fund. Among other issues, he has worked on a wide range of applied economics topics related to international finance and macroeconomics, including the modeling of the precautionary savings motive for the current account of oil exporters, the development of methods for exchange rate assessment, and an empirical study on the performance of inflation targeting countries since the onset of the Great Recession. He has also published papers on the effects of social security expansion in Brazil, measurement of CPI bias and distributional consequences of real exchange rate movements in Brazil and Mexico, and the long-term consequences of European migration to southern Brazil. His research was published in top journals, including the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of Development Economics. Irineu has also done country work on a wide variety of countries (more recently, Switzerland; before that, Colombia, Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and Dominica). Prior to joining the Fund, he was a consultant in a firm specialized in complex structured finance products, and obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT in 2000.

Email: IDECARVALHOFILHO@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pir8.html

Fluent In: Portuguese.

Education:

Ph.D. in Economics, MIT

Master in Economics, EPGE-FGV, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Bachelor in Public Administration, EAESP-FGV, São Paulo, Brazil

Referee Activities:

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Economic Modelling, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Empirical Economics, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), IMF Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of International Development, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Journal of Population Ageing, Journal of Public Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Revista Brasileira de Economia.

Editorial Activities:

Associate Editor for Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics

Awards and Honors:

Winner of the Interamerican Award for Research on Social Security, 2002

Co-winner of the John Heinz Dissertation Award, by the National Academy of Social Insurance, 2001

Dissertation Fellowship from the Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, 1999-2000

Research Grant from the Schultz Fund at MIT, 1999

Departmental Fellowship from the Department of Economics at MIT, 1997-1999

CNPq Scholarship for Ph.D. studies, 1995-1999

Seminar Presentation:

Cass Business School/ECB 4th Emerging Markets Finance Conference, in London (May 2014); CEPR 9th Annual Workshop on Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence, in Barcelona (April 2014); U.S. Department of Treasury (March 2014); Georgetown Center for Economic Research, at Georgetown University (2013); Workshop on Financial Determinants of Exchange Rates at Banco d’Italia in Rome (2012); Global Crisis and Latin American Economies, at University of Southern California (2012), Economic History Association (2010), OxCarre 4th Annual Conference in Oxford, UK (2010), 3rd International Conference Migration & Développement in Paris (2010), Jacques Polak 8th Annual Research Conference (2007), Bread/CEPR Conference on Development Economics at London School of Economics, London (2007), IMF/WHD Workshop on Economic Growth (2006), Microeconomics of Growth Network Conference at World Bank (2006), LACEA (2005, 2006), CIESS (2002), NEUDC (2001).

Others:

The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources (with R. Bems), Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012.

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.

Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008.

A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism, IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008 (with Marcos Chamon)

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries , Working Paper No. 2020/289 , December 18, 2020

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks? , Working Paper No. 15/159 , July 16, 2015

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth , Working Paper No. 13/265 , December 23, 2013

The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis , Working Paper No. 13/228 , November 06, 2013

The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis , Working Paper No. 13/228 , November 06, 2013

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes , Working Paper No. 13/8 , January 11, 2013

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes , Working Paper No. 13/8 , January 11, 2013

Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility : Evidence From Brazil , Working Paper No. 12/84 , March 01, 2012

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment , Working Paper No. 10/45 , February 01, 2010

Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries , Working Paper No. 09/281 , December 01, 2009

Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources , Working Paper No. 09/33 , February 01, 2009

Household Income As A Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence From A Social Security Reform , Working Paper No. 08/241 , October 01, 2008

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico , Working Paper No. 08/197 , August 01, 2008

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil , Working Paper No. 06/275 , December 01, 2006

Other Published Materials

Medium-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Trinidad and Tobago, IMF Country Report No. 07/8; October 5, 2006

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.

The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources, Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012.

Household Income as a Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence from a Social Security Reform, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 60(2): 399-435, 2012.

Immigration and the Origins of Regional Inequality: Government-Sponsored European Migration to Southern Brazil Before World War I (with L. Monasterio), MPRA Paper 27954, Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming.

Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008.

A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism (with M. Chamon), IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008

Irineu de Carvalho Filho is a Senior Economist in the Open Economy Macro Issues Division of the Research Department (RES) of the International Monetary Fund. Among other issues, he has worked on a wide range of applied economics topics related to international finance and macroeconomics, including the modeling of the precautionary savings motive for the current account of oil exporters, the development of methods for exchange rate assessment, and an empirical study on the performance of inflation targeting countries since the onset of the Great Recession. He has also published papers on the effects of social security expansion in Brazil, measurement of CPI bias and distributional consequences of real exchange rate movements in Brazil and Mexico, and the long-term consequences of European migration to southern Brazil. His research was published in top journals, including the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of Development Economics. Irineu has also done country work on a wide variety of countries (more recently, Switzerland; before that, Colombia, Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and Dominica). Prior to joining the Fund, he was a consultant in a firm specialized in complex structured finance products, and obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT in 2000.

Email: IDECARVALHOFILHO@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pir8.html

Fluent In: Portuguese.

Education:

Ph.D. in Economics, MIT

Master in Economics, EPGE-FGV, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Bachelor in Public Administration, EAESP-FGV, São Paulo, Brazil

Referee Activities:

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Economic Modelling, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Empirical Economics, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), IMF Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of International Development, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Journal of Population Ageing, Journal of Public Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Revista Brasileira de Economia.

Editorial Activities:

Associate Editor for Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics

Awards and Honors:

Winner of the Interamerican Award for Research on Social Security, 2002

Co-winner of the John Heinz Dissertation Award, by the National Academy of Social Insurance, 2001

Dissertation Fellowship from the Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, 1999-2000

Research Grant from the Schultz Fund at MIT, 1999

Departmental Fellowship from the Department of Economics at MIT, 1997-1999

CNPq Scholarship for Ph.D. studies, 1995-1999

Seminar Presentation:

Cass Business School/ECB 4th Emerging Markets Finance Conference, in London (May 2014); CEPR 9th Annual Workshop on Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence, in Barcelona (April 2014); U.S. Department of Treasury (March 2014); Georgetown Center for Economic Research, at Georgetown University (2013); Workshop on Financial Determinants of Exchange Rates at Banco d’Italia in Rome (2012); Global Crisis and Latin American Economies, at University of Southern California (2012), Economic History Association (2010), OxCarre 4th Annual Conference in Oxford, UK (2010), 3rd International Conference Migration & Développement in Paris (2010), Jacques Polak 8th Annual Research Conference (2007), Bread/CEPR Conference on Development Economics at London School of Economics, London (2007), IMF/WHD Workshop on Economic Growth (2006), Microeconomics of Growth Network Conference at World Bank (2006), LACEA (2005, 2006), CIESS (2002), NEUDC (2001).

Others:

The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources (with R. Bems), Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012.

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.

Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008.

A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism, IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008 (with Marcos Chamon)

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries , Working Paper No. 2020/289 , December 18, 2020

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks? , Working Paper No. 15/159 , July 16, 2015

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth , Working Paper No. 13/265 , December 23, 2013

The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis , Working Paper No. 13/228 , November 06, 2013

The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis , Working Paper No. 13/228 , November 06, 2013

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes , Working Paper No. 13/8 , January 11, 2013

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes , Working Paper No. 13/8 , January 11, 2013

Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility : Evidence From Brazil , Working Paper No. 12/84 , March 01, 2012

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment , Working Paper No. 10/45 , February 01, 2010

Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries , Working Paper No. 09/281 , December 01, 2009

Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources , Working Paper No. 09/33 , February 01, 2009

Household Income As A Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence From A Social Security Reform , Working Paper No. 08/241 , October 01, 2008

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico , Working Paper No. 08/197 , August 01, 2008

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil , Working Paper No. 06/275 , December 01, 2006

Other Published Materials

Medium-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Trinidad and Tobago, IMF Country Report No. 07/8; October 5, 2006

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.

The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources, Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.

The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012.

Household Income as a Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence from a Social Security Reform, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 60(2): 399-435, 2012.

Immigration and the Origins of Regional Inequality: Government-Sponsored European Migration to Southern Brazil Before World War I (with L. Monasterio), MPRA Paper 27954, Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming.

Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008.

A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism (with M. Chamon), IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008