A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo
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Summary:
The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2024/126
Subject:
Economic sectors Exchange rate devaluation Exchange rates Foreign exchange Inflation Mining sector Output gap Prices Production
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
June 21, 2024
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400280887/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2024126
Format:
Paper
Pages:
66
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